考虑风向的极值风速估计的Cook方法改进

Improvement of Cook Method Considering Directional Extreme Wind Speed

基于对Cook方法理论缺陷的分析,提出一种改进方法,使得考虑风向的极值风速估计的概率模型由多元随机变量更准确地转化为一维随机变量.以南京地区的极值风速为例,对改进方法与Cook方法计算结果进行对比.结果表明:改进方法对极值风速概率分布形式无要求,也不受Cook方法所需某些假设的限制,从概率的角度来说是精确的方法.

Based on the analysis of the limitations of the Cook method,an improved method was proposed.The method changed the multivariate probabilistic model of directional extreme wind speeds into an univariate model.Taking the extreme wind speeds in Nanjing area as example,the results of the method and Cook method are compared.Since the method has no limitations in the probability distribution and the assumptions of the Cook method,it has more accuracy in the probability way.