辽宁西部地区玉米发育期的降水满足度与干旱风险

Precipitation Satisfaction Degree and Drought Risk During Maize Growth Period in Western Liaoning

为玉米生产防灾减灾服务,确保粮食生产安全,采用辽宁西部气象监测站1953—2013年气候资料,运用积分湿度指数、干湿指数、气候倾向率等气候诊断分析方法,评价辽西地区玉米全生育期降水满足度、干旱频率及变化趋势。结果表明:1)1953—2013年期间玉米全生育期大气降水减少,气候变化率为-11.594mm/10a,近10年(2004—2013年)减少76.7mm;耗水量增加,气候变化率为3.842mm/10a,近10年增加11.6mm;玉米全生育期水分平均亏缺66.9mm,近10年亏缺122.7mm;2)降水满足度为84.0%,气候倾向率为-2.512mm/10a,近10年降水满足度下降16.3%;3)辽西地区玉米全生育期内属于半湿润气候类型,半干旱年景占27.9%,近10年干湿程度升级为半干旱气候类型;4)干旱风险度平均为26.9%,干旱风险度升高趋势明显,2004—2013年比1953—1962年干旱风险度增加14百分点。

To serve for disaster prevention and mitigation and ensure grain production safety,the authors adopted meteorological stations＇ climatic data in western Liaoning from 1953 to 2013,and applied climate diagnosis and analysis methods of integral humidity index,arid-wet index,climate tendency rate etc.to evaluate the precipitation satisfaction,drought frequency and variation trend in western Liaoning during the whole maize growth period.Result：1）From 1953 to 2013during the whole maize growth period,the atmospheric precipitation showed a trend of decrease,rate of climate change is-11.594mm/10 a,76.7mm reduced in the last ten years（2004-2013）;The water consumption showed an increasing trend,climate change rate is 3.842mm/10 a,11.6mm increased in the last ten years;average precipitation deficiency during the whole maize growth period is 66.9mm,deficiency of 122.7mm in the last ten years.2）The precipitation satisfaction degree is 84.0%,showing a downtrend;climate tendency rate is-2.512mm/10 a,the precipitation satisfaction degree fell by 16.3% in the last 10 years.3）Western Liaoning during the whole maize growth period belongs to sub-humid climate zone that 27.9%time in a year is semiarid,acrid-wet degree has upgraded to semi-arid climate type in the last ten years.4）Drought risk degree is averagely 26.9% which has markedly increased.The drought risk degree has increased by fourteen percent from 2004 to 2013compared with that from 1953 to 1962.