“十三五”输电网发展重点研究

Research on Development of Transmission Power Grid in 13^(th) Five-Year Period

"十三五"是中国全面建成小康社会的关键时期,是实现能源电力发展方式转变的重要战略机遇期。根据中国"西电东送、北电南送"电力流特点,未来国家电网发展将呈现东北、西北、西南为送端,华北、华东、华中为受端的基本格局。在总结分析"十二五"国家电网发展成就的基础上,系统阐述了电网发展面临的形势和任务,提出"十三五"期间国家电网发展重点,要加快建设以特高压电网为骨干网架、各级电网协调发展的坚强智能电网,促进大型煤电、水电、核电、可再生能源基地集约开发,实施大规模、远距离输电,实现能源资源在全国范围优化配置,推动能源结构调整和布局优化,促进资源节约和生态环境保护,保障能源可持续安全供应。

It is of great signifieance to properly determine the forecasts ahout the national and local power demand trends in the 13^th Five-Year Plan as well as the med-term and long-term periods. In this paper, three scenarios of economic and electricity demand growth are constructed to forecast the national and local power demands by 2020 and 2030 hased on the established economy and electricity demand forecasting model. The results show that during these periods, China＇s electricity demand will still have strong growth potentials, but the growth rate will decrease greatly after 2020. The North China, Central China and East China will always take the major role in electrieity demand. By 2020, the total demand for electricity will be about 7 649 to 8 447 TWh with the peak load of 1 271 to 1 410 GW and the proportion of the electricity demand in North China, Central China and East China accounting for 63.7%-65.8% ; by 2030, the total demand will be about 1 003 to 1 175 TWh with the peak load of 1 708 to 2 002 GW and the proportion of the electricity demand in North China, Central China and East China accounting for 61.5%-63.2%.