应用移动平均法的趋势季节模型开展宜昌市手足口病预测预警

Forecasting and Early Warning of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease(HFMD) in Yichang City by Seasonal Trend Model Based on Moving Average Method

目的应用移动平均法的趋势季节模型,对湖北省宜昌市手足口病开展预测预警。方法应用Excel2007对宜昌市2009～2013年手足口病疫情进行统计分析。结果趋势季节模型预测结果显示2014年宜昌市手足口病疫情的两个高峰分别为第19周（5月）和第48周（11月）。结论基于移动平均法的趋势季节模型应用于手足口病的预测预警具有实际意义。

Objective To forecast hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） condition and early warning in Yichang city by seasonal trend model based on moving average method. Method HFMD data from 2009 to 2013 in Yichang city was analyzed by Excel 2007. Results Summer and winter were the seasons with high rates of HFMD incidence in Yichang city. Seasonal trend model analysis forecasted that the 19 th week and 48 th week would be the weeks with the highest HFMD occurrences in the year 2014. Conclusion It is feasible to use the seasonal trend model based on moving average method to forecast the incidence of HFMD and early warning. There is practical signifi cance for the prevention and control of disease.