湘江城市段能值生态足迹及驱动力分析

Analysis of Emergetic Ecological Footprint and its Driving Effects in City Cluster of Xiangjiang River Basin

以湘江城市段为对象,对区域性的本地生态足迹及其与社会经济发展的关联性提出一种研究方式.在传统能值生态足迹模型的基础上,本文从本地生态资源生产占用与废弃物排放的角度出发,分析湘江城市段生态足迹的变化情况;再通过数理统计方法将生态足迹与社会经济指标进行关联计算.结果表明,该城市段在1999～2008年间处于生态不安全状态,年均生态足迹是年均生态承载力的18.35倍.岳阳市的年均生态赤字最大,而长沙市的最小.社会经济对人均生态足迹变化的正向驱动力明显强于负向驱动力.经济发展模式和食物供给需求是促使湘江城市段本地生态足迹增长的最主要因素,因此在经济结构转型过程中应充分重视其发展模式对生态环境的驱动作用.

Taking the city cluster of the Xiangjiang River basin for example,the paper proposed a new approach to associate the regional ecological footprint with the socio-economic development.First,on the basis of the traditional emergetic ecological footprint model,the changing processes of the local ecological footprint in the six cities of the Xiangjiang River basin were calculated and analyzed by dividing the ecological footprint accounts into the local productive resources accounts and the local waste emission accounts.Then,the correlation degree between the ecological footprint and the socio-economic indicators was calculated with the method of mathematical statistics.The results showed that the average ecological footprint was 18.35 times of the average ecological carrying capacity from 1999 to 2008,which demonstrated that the city cluster of the Xiangjiang River basin was in a situation of ecological deficit.The largest ecological deficit occurred in Yueyang City while the smallest occurred in Changsha City among this city cluster.The plus-driving effects of the socio-economic development to the ecological footprint was much stronger than the minus-driving effect.Economic development model and food demand were the principal factors which prompted the growth of the local ecological footprint.Therefore,it should be paid full attention to the driving effect of the economic model to the ecological environment in the process of the economic structure transition.