摘要
预计2014年国内大豆种植面积继续下降,但黑龙江由于春涝在连续5年下降后首次增加。由于黄淮海流域部分地区大幅减产,预计全国产量比上年略减。2014年,国内大豆价格先降后升,国际大豆价格先涨后跌,价差创历史最高纪录。大豆进口继续增加,进口量有望接近7 000万t,再创纪录已成定局。展望2015年,全球大豆供给充裕,国际大豆价格难掀波澜,国内大豆价格易跌难涨。
It is expected that domestic soybean acreage continues to decline in 2014, while which is increased in Heilongjiang province after decreasing for five consecutive years because of spring floods. Total domestic production is expected to decline in virtue of the decreased yield in parts of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain area. Domestic soybean price was up after a decline, while international soybean price was down after the first increase, which made the price margin reach a record high. The import volume is expected to rise and hit a record to around 70 million tons in 2014. In 2015, the international soybean price may be difficult to lift waves for the abundant global supply, and domestic soybean price will increase by pounds and decrease by ounces.
出处
《农业展望》
2014年第12期4-8,13,共6页
Agricultural Outlook
关键词
大豆市场
产量
供需
价差
进口
形势分析
后期展望
soybean market
production
supply and demand
price margin
import
situation analysis
future prospect
