生产率收敛是否会带来经济增长收敛?——来自中国的经验证据

Does the Convergence of TFP Cause the Convergence of Economic Growth——The Empirical Evidence from China

本文的主要目的在于研究生产率收敛是否会带来经济增长收敛,即分析中国国内、沿海以及内地全要素生产率(TFP)自身收敛性与其对经济增长收敛性影响的一致性问题,同时分析这种一致性(不一致性)的形成机制和演变方式,进而找出缩小中国地区差距的可能路径。本文的分析结果表明,中国国内、沿海以及内地TFP自身的收敛性与其对经济增长收敛性的影响是不一致的,而存在不一致性的原因在于物化型技术进步使TFP及其三个增长源泉对经济增长收敛存在双重作用途径,即生产率(或者其三个增长源泉)是否会导致经济增长收敛同时取决于其自身的收敛性和其对产出中劳均资本存量贡献收敛性的影响。本文的结论说明相对落后地区短期应该加大对具有较高技术含量资本的投入,而长期只有提高其技术创新效率才能真正缩小地区间的差距。

The main purpose of this paper is to judge whether or not the convergence of TFP cause the convergence of economy growth, or to analyze the consistency among the effect of TFP on economy convergence and the convergence of TFP in china, as well as coastal and inland area, then analyze the mechanism on this consistency. This will be helpful to find the feasible paths which can be used to narrow the regional economic difference. The results show that the effect of TFP on economy convergence and the convergence of TFP in china is not consistent, as well as coastal and inland area. The reason is that there are dual effect of the TFP on economy convergence because of the capital embodied technological progress, so whether TFP （or three sources of TFP） can or can not lead to the convergence of economic growth also depends on its convergence and its contribution to the convergence of output per worker capital stock. The results imply that increasing high - tech capital input can narrow economy regional difference in the short term, but only by improving the technology innovation efficiency can one country truly narrow economy regional difference in the long term.