房地产业成长发展轨迹的回归研究

Regression Research on the Growth Path of Real Estate Industry

本文采集了28个国家或地区的人均房地产增量和人均国内生产总值等相关数据,采用横向研究方法进行分析,建立了关于房地产业成长发展轨迹的回归模型。结果发现房地产业的发展会随着人均国内生产总值的增长呈现上升、下降、再上升的三阶段特点,并分析出各阶段的边界,以期为预测、评价和规划我国房地产业的发展提供新的方法和依据。

A regression model about the track of real estate growth and development was constructed by employing cross- sectional research methods to analyze the date of per capita real estate incremental and per capita gross domestic product intercepted from 28 countries. The result revealed the three-phase-features of the development of the real estate industry, which will rise, fall and rise again with the growth of the gross domestic product per capital. Subsequently, the boundaries of the three-phase were discovered, thus providing new scientific methods and basis for the prediction, assessment and projection of the development of real estate industry in China.