人口结构与经常项目收支——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

Demographic Changes and the Current Account——Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

在个体储蓄模型和企业决策模型的基础上,构建了一国经常项目收支模型,考察了人口结构变化对一国经常项目收支的影响,并利用我国31个省、市、自治区1989～2012年的面板数据进行了实证检验。系统广义矩估计和门槛回归结果表明,少儿抚养比对我国经常项目收支具有显著的负效应,且该负效应随着经济发达程度的提高而增强;老年抚养比对我国经常项目收支的影响并不显著;人口性别比对我国经常项目收支具有显著的正向影响,且该影响随着经济发达程度的提高表现出倒U型特征。人口结构变化能够解释我国经常账户变化的1/4,是经常账目收支持续顺差的重要原因之一。

This paper constructed a current account model on the basis of individual savings model and enterprise decision-making model, and investigated the impacts of demographic changes on current account, and then engaged an empirical analysis on Chinese panel data from 1989 to 2012.The results of system GMM and threshold regression reveal that, children＇s dependency ratio has a significant nega- tive effect on current account, and the negative effect enhances with the increase of economic development level, while elderly dependency ratio has not significant impact on current account. Sex ratio introduced by this paper has a significant positive effect on current account, and with the increase of economic development level, the positive effect is shown as an ＂inverted U＂. The conclusion of this paper shows that. demographic changes account for a quarter of the changes of Chinese current account, proving that demographic changes in China is an important reason why current account is always surplus.