强制减排试点省市能源碳排放驱动因素分析

Analysis on Driving Factors of Energy Carbon Emissions in the Pilot Regions of Mandatory Emission Reduction

根据全国及北京市、天津市、上海市、广东省、湖北省和重庆市六个强制碳减排试点省市的碳排放量数据,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法(LMDI),从能源结构、能源效率、经济发展三方面分析能源碳排放的驱动因素,发现能源结构对碳排放的影响相对较小,而且,在北京、天津和上海市,三大驱动因素对人均碳排放的贡献值明显大于在湖北省、广东省和重庆市的贡献值。进一步,采用多元线性回归模型和环比增长率数据,实证检验全国及六个试点省市三大驱动因素的变化对人均碳排放的影响。研究结果显示:从全国来看,能源结构变化对碳排放量影响不显著,而碳排放对能源效率的变化比对经济发展更为敏感。具体到各省市数据,湖北省三大驱动因素变化对碳排放的影响均不显著,而其他省市碳排放受各驱动因素的影响各具特点。研究结论为政府在各地区制定合理的碳减排政策提供了参考。

According to the carbon emission data of the whole country and six pilot regions of mandatory carbon emission reduction, this paper studies the driving factors of energy carbon emissions from the energy structure, energy efficiency and economic development. By using the logarithmic mean Divisia index（LMDI）decomposition method, we find that the impact of energy structure on carbon emissions is relatively small, and the three driving factors＇ contribution values to per capita carbon emissions in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are significantly greater than that in Hubei, Guangdong and Chongqing. Further, by using the multiple linear regression models and the chain growth rate data of the whole country and six pilot regions of mandatory carbon emission reduction, this paper does empirical analysis on the impacts of the three driving factors＇ changes on per capita carbon emissions. The results show that from a national perspective, the impact of the energy structure＇s changes on carbon emissions is not significant, and carbon emissions are more sensitive to energy efficiency than to economic development. With the data specific to the six provinces and cities, the impacts of the three driving factors on carbon emissions are not significant in Hubei province, and the impacts in other provinces and cities are of different characteristics. These conclusions provide a reference for the government to develop reasonable policies of carbon emission reduction in various regions.