制造业升级中劳动力需求趋势与质量结构研究——基于灰色理论的实证分析

The Study of Labor Force Demand Tendency and Quality Structure in Upgrading of Manufacturing Industry——An Empirical Analysis Based on Grey Theory

当前制造业发展面临转型压力,匹配的劳动力支撑是解决这一问题的关键。本文运用灰色理论的GM(1,1)模型对制造业转型升级中劳动力数量需求趋势进行预测,并利用灰色关联模型对劳动力质量结构相关的9个因素进行灰色绝对、相对及综合关联分析。结果表明:劳动力的需求数量呈持续增长趋势,但涨幅不高;劳动力成本、R&D经费投入、职业技术教育、固定资产投资等因素与劳动力质量结构关联较大。最后,为适应制造业转型升级,文章提出了优化劳动力质量结构的政策建议。

The current development of manufacturing industry faces the pressure of upgrading, and the support of matching labor force is the key to solve this problem. This paper forecasts the quantity demand of labor force in the transformation and upgrading of manu- facturing industry by using GM（ 1,1）model of grey theory. We also analyze the correlation of the nine factors related to the quality structure of labor force by using grey correlation model. The study finds that the number of labor force demand continues growing, but the increase is not high, and the rise of labor costs, science and technology funds, vocational and technical education, investment in fixed assets are important factors, lastly, in order to adapt the manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading, the article puts forward the policy suggestions on optimizing the structure of labor force quality.