偶发学习、内生增长与劳动力市场稳定化货币政策——一个带内生增长的NKMP-DSGE模型

Serendipitous Learning,Endogenous Growth and Labor Market Stabilization Monetary Policy——NKMP-DSGE Model with Endogenous Growth

通过偶发学习机制将内生经济增长与经济周期波动统一于NKMP-DSGE框架,并基于这一框架考察了偶发学习机制的效应以及实现劳动力市场稳定的货币政策机制。研究发现:偶发学习的引入具有扩大货币政策效果的作用,同时也是产生"通胀之谜"以及"工资通胀之谜"的原因之一。而政策分析的结论表明:就促进经济增长与稳定劳动力市场而言,对失业做出反应的政策机制具有相对较好的政策效果。在当前我国失业问题日益严峻的背景下,采用这一政策机制可能具有实现"保增长"和缓解失业的双重效果。

This paper unified the growth and business cycle analysis in a NKMP- DSGE framework by introducing the serendipitous learning,and investigated the effects of shocks on economics. We find that serendipitous learning might be the reason of the myth of inflation and wage inflation. And,in the model with serendipitous learning,monetary policy shock has significant larger effect on output and unemployment. The result of policy analysis argues that the policy reacts to unemployment maybe useful for promoting the growth and for decreasing unemployment.