人口老龄化对县域经济的影响研究

Research on the Effects of Population Aging in Chinese County Economy

目前,中国已经进入人口老龄化社会。人口老龄化问题不仅对中国宏观经济有着巨大影响,也给经济发展水平和社会保障程度较低的县域经济带来前所未有的挑战。随着城镇化进程加深,如何解决人口机械迁移引起的县域人口老龄化问题,缓解人口老龄化对县域经济的影响变得尤为关键。本文在县域层面,对引入人口老龄化因素的索洛模型进行了分析和研究,认为人口老龄化对县域经济的有效劳动供给、资本形成、储蓄率和经济增长都产生了不利影响,社会养老开支占产出的比重、县域总人口中外出从业人口、老龄人口比重的差异将对不同县域的经济平衡增长路径造成影响。

At present, China has already entered the aging society. The problem of population aging not on- ly has a great influenceon China macro-economics, also brings hitherto unknown challenge to the county economic development whose economic development social security ｜evel is ｜ow. The process of urbaniza- tion causing the aging of the population in Chinese county economy by absorbed young migrant from county. It is imperative to alleviate the impact of population aging on the development of county economy. This pa- per uses the Solow model to analyze the aging factors that influenced the county economy by the effective la- bor supply of the county economy, capital formation, saving rate and economic growth. In conclusion, popu- lation aging truly affects county economy in China and be different in the level of old-age insurance, and the proportion of the elderly population etc.