新兴产业成长中需求拉动作用的实证检验——以新一代信息与电子业为例

The Empirical Tests of Demand-pull Factors in the Growth of Emerging Industries——Based on the New Generation of Communication and Electronic Industries

将新兴产业需求拉动因素分解为需求规模和需求结构两个维度,同时将需求规模区分为总体需求规模与有效需求规模,从微观层次刻画总体需求、有效需求、需求结构等需求拉动因素在新兴产业发展中的微观作用机制。实证结果发现:新兴产业总体需求规模的扩大,并不必然全部转化为新兴产业发展的驱动力,有效需求规模及需求结构的调整才是新兴产业成长与发展的关键性因素,需求结构在我国新兴产业成长中的贡献关联度明显偏低,我国新兴产业的成长发展需要高度重视国内市场的培育并优化需求结构。

This paper divides demand-pull factors specifically into two dimensions ： the structure of demand, and the scale of demand which consists of overall demand and effective demand. It describs the micro-mechanism of demand-pull factors consist of overall demand, effective demand and ＂demand structure＂ which play a micro mechanism in the development of emerging industries from the microscopic level. Then it employes practical data from the new generation of communication and electronic industries, carries out an empirical research to examine the relationships between those demand-pull factors and the development and competitiveness of emerging industries. It finds out that the expansion of emerging industries＇ o- verall demand scales does not totally transfer into the driving force which could improve the development of Chinese emerging industries. The adjustments of effective demand scales and demand structures are the key factors to the growth and develop- ment of Chinese emerging industries. Moreover, the correlation of demand structure which contributes to the growth and de- velopment of chinese emerging industries is obviously low. According to this argument, the paper offers some relevant politic, suggestions about the growth and development of Chinese emerging industries from the perspective of demand side.