基于大米进口的人民币实际有效汇率研究

RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Research Based on Rice Imports

借鉴IMF的计算方法,根据我国与泰国、巴基斯坦和越南的双边名义汇率等数据,计算出1995—2013年基于我国大米进口的人民币实际有效汇率指数。运用对数线性模型、误差修正模型和各种检验方法,分析得出,基于大米进口的人民币实际有效汇率升值对我国大米进口有重要影响。降低国内稻米生产成本是减缓人民币升值带动大米进口的主要途径。

Referring to the calculation method of IMF, the RMB real effective exchange rate index from 1995 to 2013 based on our country＇s rice imports is calculated, according to the bilateral nominal ex- change rate data between Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam and China. Using the logarithm linear model, er- ror correction model and other test methods, the paper sees that RMB real effective exchange rate ap- preciation based has an important effect on our imports rice. Reduction of domestic rice production cost is the main way to slow down RMB appreciation to drive rice imports.