中国碳捕获与封存技术的成本演化和技术扩散分析--基于中国能源经济内生技术综合模型

Analysis of cost and technological diffusion of carbon capture and storage for China——Based on Chinese energy economic endogenous technological model

本文利用自主构建的中国单区域能源-环境-经济内生技术模型研究了气候政策背景下CCS技术的成本演化,技术发展潜力以及减排贡献等问题.通过研究发现:经验学习是影响CCS技术成本变化最为关键的因素,与风能、核能等新能源技术相比,CCS技术不具有长期的成本优势,燃料成本的上升是造成这一结果的主因.另外,尽管CO_2的资源化利用收益能在一定程度上冲抵部分使用成本,但这种冲抵效果也只有在燃料成本相对稳定的情况下才能凸显;CO_2资源化利用对CCS技术扩散的促进作用受到资源化利用的CO_2量的显著影响,补贴政策的引入能够促使CO_2资源化利用对CCS技术发展的激励作用更早地发挥.

In this paper, we explore the cost evolution and technological diffusion of CCS in the policy context by building an economy-environmental endogenous technological model. We find that CCS is difficult to get its long-term cost advantage, as compared to wind and nuclear, and the increasing of fuel cost should be responsible for this; Resource usage of CO2 could hedge against the use cost of CCS to some extent, while only the fuel cost is relatively stable, would this hedge effect be significant; The effect of CO2 resource usage on the penetration of CCS heavily depends on the CO2 amount used as resource, the introduction of subsidy policy will significantly improve this effect and promote CCS diffuse earlier.