有机热载体炉运行风险评价方法研究

Risk assessment method for organic heat transfer material heaters operation

运用人-机-环境系统工程原理,对有机热载体炉运行风险的人机环境系统进行综合评估.根据专家法确定指标层的值,在熵度法计算指标层权重、层次分析法和专家法计算准则层权重的基础上,评估指标层风险、各子系统风险和人机环境系统的综合风险,通过一致性检验表明该模型是合理可行的.将该模型应用到某台有机热载体炉运行风险评价中,得出目前有机热载体炉实际运行中人机环境指标的权重分别为:1.830、1.293、1.749,比较得出人和环境这两个指标比有机热载体炉设备本体的权重大0.5左右.这表明我们需要更多关注人员素质和环境管理,最后对风险评估值中较大的指标层提出了具体的改进措施,该评价方法对有机热载体炉定期检测有一定的指导意义.

Man-machine-environment system engineering theory was applied to evaluate risk of organic heat transfer material heaters. The factors concerning with the man, machine and environment in system were discussed separately. By using the entropy method and the expert method as well as the AHP method, the rule layer weight for above factors was determined, and then risk assessment in different layer was made. The results show the assessment method is reasonable. The model is applied to the evaluation of some organic heat transfer material heaters operation risk, we obtain the weight of man-machine-environment indexes of actual operation of organic heat carrier boiler respectively： 1.830, 1.293, 1.749, so the weights of man and machine are about 0.5 larger than the weight of organic heat transfer material heaters. This indicates that we need to pay more attention to the quality of personnel and environmental management. Accordingly, some prevention measures are also proposed by assessment results. It is significant for regular inspection of organic heat transfer material heaters.