区域贸易协定与出口的二元边际:基于中国—东盟自贸区的微观数据分析

Regional Trade Agreements and Dual Margin of China's Exports: A Product-Level Analysis

以周边国家为基础加快实施自由贸易区战略是未来中国对外经济政策的重点。本文使用CEPII—BACI数据库1995-2012年中国对东盟各国的HS-6位数产品的出口贸易数据，探究了中国-东盟自贸区建立前后中国对东盟出口的二元边际结构及其决定因素。研究发现，中国对东盟的出口以集约边际为主，但自贸区的成立有效地促进了扩展边际的提升；中国-东盟自贸区对二元边际都有促进作用，但对集约边际的影响更大。结果表明，中国的自贸区战略仍处于浅度一体化的阶段，应该提高合作水平，向深度一体化发展。

Basing on surrounding countries and accelerating free trade area strategy progress are the key points of China＇s foreign economic policy in the near future. This paper, using the HS-6 digit product trade data on China＇s exports to ASEAN countries in 1995-2012, explores the exports of dual marginal structure and its determinants between China and ASEAN. It finds that the growth of Chinese exports to the ASEAN Free Trade Area is mainly by intensive margin, but extensive margin improving rapidly. Empirical analysis further finds that the formulation of regional trade agreements promotes dual margin, but greater intensity on intensive margin. These micro-level conclusions prove that FTA strategy of China is still at the initial phase. Enhancing corporation and searching for deeper integration should be the goal of China＇s FTA progress.