张掖地区气候因素与麻疹发病的相关性

Relationship between Climate and Measles Incidence in Zhangye

[目的]研究张掖地区气候因素与麻疹发病的关系。[方法]收集张掖地区1976—2005年气象资料、1976—2000年沙尘资料[上游西北风向酒泉市、金塔县沙尘资料(1989—2000年)],及对应时间该地区麻疹发病数据;运用SPSS软件进行年、月、季节相关分析,探讨气象条件、沙尘天气与麻疹发病的关系。[结果](1)1976—2005年,张掖地区气候向暖湿方向变化,气温增长率和降水增长率分别为0.571℃/10年和9.8 mm/10年。(2)麻疹为张掖地区高发病种,具春季高发特点。(3)张掖地区平均风速与麻疹发病人数具有正相关。而平均气温、降水、平均气压与麻疹发病无显著相关性。(4)张掖地区及其上游地区(酒泉市及金塔县)的沙尘天气与张掖地区麻疹发病呈正相关。[结论]张掖地区平均风速、沙尘天气与麻疹发病率呈现正相关。风速的增大,沙尘天气的频发,为麻疹病毒的传播提供了有利条件的传播条件,可能加大该病的传播。

[ Objective ] To estimate the relationship between climate and measles incidence in Zhangye. [ Methods Data were collected on conventional meteorological parameters （1976-2005） and dust weather （1976-2000） in Zhangye, dust weather in Jiuquan and Jinta （to the upstream northwest of Zhangye） （1989-2000）, and corresponding measles incidences. Yearly, seasonal, and monthly correlations were examined between meteorological conditions/dust weather and measles incidences using SPSS software. [ Results ] （1） During 1976-2005, the climate of Zhangye changed to be warmer and moister with a increment rates of 0.571 ℃/10 years for temperature and 9.8 mm/10 years for precipitation. （2） High incidence waves of measles were observed in spring. （3） The average wind speed had a positive correlation with measles incidence. No significant correlations were identified between measles incidence and factors like temperature, precipitation, and air pressure. （4） The dust weather in Zhangye and its upstream regions （Jiuquan city and Jinta county） was positively correlated with the incidence of measles in Zhangye. [ Conclusion ] There is a significant positive correlation of the incidence of measles with average wind speed or dust weather. It can be concerned with that strong wind could make the dust particles diffuse widely, which might be a carrier of measles viruses.