基于门限回归模型的中部六省服务业发展影响因素研究

本文以Cobb-Douglas函数为理论基础,利用中部六省2000-2012年数据,构建面板门限回归模型,研究了中部六省服务业发展的影响因素。结果显示人均GDP与服务业增加值之间存在两个门限效应,门限值分别为6561.01元和7709.43元。三个门限区间范围内,固定资产投资、就业人数对服务业的弹性系数变化表明中部六省服务业发展由人力投入驱动为主逐渐转向资本投入驱动为主转变。该结论的政策启示在于,未来应更加重视资本在服务业发展中的应用。

By using the data of six central provinces from 2011 to 2012, this paper took Cobb- Douglas function as the theoretical model, built panel threshold regression model, and discussed the factors affecting the development of service industry of six central provinces. Results show that there were two threshold effects between per capita GDP and value -added of service industry, and threshold values were 6561.01 yuan and 7709.43 yuan. From variation of elastic coefficients on service industry between fixed - asset investment and employment volume in interval range of three thresholds, it indicated service industry of six central provinces have been changed gradually from human input driven style to capital input driven style. The policy implication of the conclusion is that more attention should be paid to the application of capital in the development of service industry in the future.