基于灰色预测模型的淮安市居民生活用电消费研究

用电量的科学预测对配电商生产规模的调整及营销决策具有重要意义。传统的预测方法在收敛速度、预测精度以及适用性上均有不同程度的局限。鉴于居民生活用电消费影响因素较多,还存在随机因素,因此选择灰色模型对其进行预测。在分析淮安市居民生活用电消费市场现状及影响因素的基础上,根据2007-2013年淮安市居民生活用电量数据,基于灰色预测模型对淮安市居民生活用电消费进行预测,并对预测结果进行检验和分析。最后,提出了淮安市居民消费用电市场的开拓策略。

It is important to forecast scientifically the electricity consumption for power distributors to adjust production scope and make decisions. Traditional forecasting methods have their limits in convergence speed, prediction accuracy and applicability. Since household electricity consumption has many influence factors including random factor, grey forecasting model is selected in the paper. On the basis of analysis of present situation and influence factors of household electricity consumption in Huai＇ an, according to the datum of household electricity consumption in Huai＇ an from 2007 to 2013, the paper applies grey model to forecast the household consumption in Huai＇ an, examines and analyzes the results. In the end, development strategies are proposed for the household electricity consumption market in Huai＇ an.