我国失业状况综合测度结构体系研究——基于探索性和验证性因子分析框架的检验

通过文献研究、问卷调查等方式,运用探索性和验证性因子分析方法,构建失业综合测度指标体系以及失业综合指数来对我国目前失业状况进行探讨。研究结果表明,失业综合状况测度体系可以从劳动力供给、劳动力需求、劳动力市场运行效率以及公共就业扶持程度等四个维度来进行分析;与单一的城镇登记失业率相比,基于测度指标体系的失业综合指数能更全面、客观、科学地表征当前的失业程度,相对于时间间隔期较长的调查失业率的方式,该指数在时间连续性、操作性上优势显著,可以为失业预警预测提供理论支撑。

With exploratory and confirmatory analysis methods, the writer constructs a composite index system of unemployment to measure the current unemployment situation. Research results indicate that, the composite index system of unemployment consists of four dimensions, which are labors supply, labor needs, running efficiency of labor＇ s market and public employment supporting system; compared with registered urban unemployment rate, unemployment composite indexes can more completely, objectively and scientifically characterize the current situation of unemployment. With the prominent dominance in time continuity and operability, the index system can provide a theoretical support for unemployment warning forecast.