中国服务出口竞争力:增加值视角下的新认识

The competitiveness of China's services exports:New understanding on the perspective of value added

全球价值链的深入发展客观上要求以"贸易增加值"来刻画一国产业的真实国际竞争力。鉴于此,本文基于"贸易增加值"计算了1995年至2011年中国各服务业显示性比较优势指数(RCA),并与基于传统总值核算法计算的RCA指数进行了比较。结果显示:(1)从附加值视角看,目前中国在服务业各分类部门,包括劳动密集型服务业,都还不具备显著比较优势,而在资本和知识密集型服务业领域,比较劣势十分显著且没有明显"改善"迹象,但在劳动密集型服务业领域,比较优势正在逐步形成。(2)传统总值核算法计算的RCA指数,无论是在劳动密集型,还是在资本密集型以及知识密集型服务业,均有显著"高估"现象,甚至出现比较劣势和优势的"反转",有比较优势"统计幻象"之嫌,导致了严重"误判"。上述结果对于客观认识中国服务业国际竞争力现状,深刻理解其发展、转型升级战略方向乃至政策的科学制定,都有着重要政策涵意。

The deep development of global value chain requires to describe the real international competitiveness of a nation＇s industry with ＂trade added value＂ objectively. As a result, based on ＂trade added value＂, this paper calculates RCA of all services in China from 1995 to 2011, and compares it with the index based on traditional total value measurement method. The results show that： （1） on the perspective of value-added, at the present, China has not taken significant comparative advantages in various service departments, including labor-intensive service industry. However, in the capital and knowledge-intensive ser- vice areas, comparative disadvantage is significant and has not improved obviously. But in the labor-intensive service areas, com- parative advantage is now gradually forming. （2） RCA index calculated by traditional total value measurement method is overvalued obviously not only in the labor-intensive type, but also in capital-intensive type and knowledge-intensive type. Or there is even an ＂inverse＂ in comparative disadvantage and advantage with ＂statistical illusion＂ in comparative advantage, which leads to serious ＂mis-judgment＂. Such results are of important policy significance for objectively understanding the status quo of the international competitiveness of China＇ s service industry, its development, upgrading strategic orientation in the transition period and scientific policy-making.