上市公司内在价值评估模型探索

Internal Evaluation Model Exploration of the Listed Company

本文首先分析我国股市有利于推行价值投资理念的内外部因素,然后以市场上主流的价值评估模型为基础,结合国内股市现状,基于新的会计准则构建适合中国股市的上市公司内在价值评估模型,最后选取沪市4家上市公司进行实证探索。结果表明:本文构建的模型对沪市A股上市公司内在价值的评估结果符合现实情况,有一定的合理性;同时发现该模型对蓝筹股的评估结果与其股价的关联度比较高,而对新股和中小盘股的评估结果与其股价的关联度弱一点。这可能与新股和中小盘股的市场炒作气氛浓郁,股价波动比较大有关系。

The thesis analyzes the internal and external factors which are beneficial to the development of value investment at first;and then takes the main value investment model in the market as the basis, and constructs a fitful internal value evaluation model for the listed company in the Chinese stock markets; finally selects 4 listed companies in Shanghai market to have the case exploration.The result shows that the constructed model is fit for the actual situation with feasibility. At the same time, the degree of association between the evaluation result of the blue chip and its stock price is very high, and that between the evaluation result of the new and small cap stocks and its stock price is a little low, which is relevant to the market speculation and the share fluctuation.