北京市鸡蛋及其相关行业市场分析及展望

The Market Analysis and Outlook of Eggs and Its Related Industries in Beijing

为了确定北京市鸡蛋价格波动规律及其影响因素,本研究采用指标分析、变异系数、季节调整模型以及HP滤波等方法,结合鸡蛋生产、商品代蛋雏鸡、饲料市场等鸡蛋相关行业市场情况,对北京市鸡蛋批发市场行情进行了分析。结果表明:2002—2012年,北京市批发市场鸡蛋月度价格呈上升趋势,振幅呈阶段性放大特征,大致经历了3个完整的波动周期,每个周期持续时间为37个月,年度内鸡蛋价格呈"一峰一谷"型,高价区集中在7—12月;年度内上市量与鸡蛋价格呈反向关系。玉米、蛋鸡配合饲料以及商品代蛋雏鸡等主要养殖成本增加是鸡蛋价格上升的重要原因之一。因此,应加强监测预警、建立鸡蛋价格保险制度、发展鸡蛋期货,以稳定鸡蛋价格、减少生产经营损失。

In order to study the law of the egg price volatility and the influencing factors of egg price, the method of indicators analysis, coefficient of variation, seasonal adjustment model and the HP fiher were used to analyze the price of eggs. And egg production, goods generation egg chicks, feed market and other related industries according to the market of eggs were analyzed too. The results showed that, the price of eggs increased from 2002 to 2012, and the amplitude was amplified. The egg price had gone through 3 complete fluctuation cycles, each fluctuation cycle of the egg price roughly experienced 37 months. In the year, the price of eggs was a ＇peak-valley＇ type, and the egg price was high from July to December. The listed amount basically changed in reverse to the egg price. The increasing of feeding cost of chicken, such as the price of corn, layer mixed feed, goods generation egg chicks and so on, was one of the important reasons for the increasing egg price. Therefore, in order to stabilize the price of eggs and reduce the losses of production, the monitoring and early warning should be strengthened, egg price insurance system should be established and egg futures should be developed.