省级以下现代天气业务集约化发展研究

Research on the Development of Modern Weather Service Intensive at and below the Provincial Level

在梳理中国气象局现代气象业务发展,特别是现代天气业务发展思路和成效的基础上,结合公共气象服务面临的新形势和新需求,分析了省级以下现代天气业务集约化发展面临的新问题,提出了优化省市县三级的重点业务分工、改进预报预警技术和业务流程、完善相关业务标准、创新基层一体化业务服务方式、进而推进核心气象业务集约化发展的建议,包括:1实施"预报核心上移、服务重心下沉"战略,逐步建立适应气象服务体制改革要求的业务布局。强化省级大数据(基础数据、预报服务产品库和综合一体化平台等)环境部署、精准化天气预报技术路线及流程的革新、灾害性天气预警技术把关等业务核心地位,强化市级短期精细化要素预报订正和气象服务社会化的组织与协调,强化县级基层气象防灾减灾的社会化组织和协调、灾害性天气及气象灾害风险预警职能。2创新基层海量数值天气预报(NWP)产品集成应用方式,关注气象要素格点、情景预报技术发展,探索综合业务平台升级以及预报产品无缝隙、网格化、精细化制作技术。3进一步理清灾害性天气预报预警业务的上下级分工,创新管理模式,完善集约化业务平台和流程,整合专业化的信息发布平台和流程。4完善产品格式、标准和方法,推进业务质量检验评估体系建设。5强化多方式业务培训,提升业务科技创新能力,推进县级监测、预报和服务业务的一体化,全面提升县级精细化预报、灾害性天气及气象灾害预警服务能力。

In the carding Chinese Meteorological Bureau modem meteorological business development, especially the foundation of modem weather service development idea and the effectiveness of the new situation and new requirements, combined with the face of public meteorological services, analyses the new problems facing the provincial following modem weather business intensive development, put forward the optimization of province city county three class＇s key business division, to improve the forecast and early warning technology and business process, improve the relevant business standards, innovation of basic business integration service mode, so as to promote the core of meteorological service intensive development proposals, including： the implementation of the ＂forecast service core up, center of gravity to sink＂ strategy, and gradually establish a meteorological service system to adapt to the requirements of the reform of the business layout. Strengthening the provincial large data （basic data, forecast service product library and integrated platform） deployment environment, accurate weather forecast technique the core status and process innovation, disaster warning technology weather guard service, strengthen the organization and coordination of the municipal short-term refined elements forecast and meteorological service socialization, strengthening social organization of county level meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation, and the coordination of the disastrous weather and meteorological disaster risk early warning function. The innovation of grassroots mass numerical weather prediction （NWP） product integration application way, attention to meteorological grid, scenario prediction technology development, exploration of seamless, integrated service platform and upgrade product forecast grid, meticulous production technology. To further clarify the disastrous weather forecast and warning service on the lower level of division of labor, innovation management, improve the intensive service platform and the process, information release platform and process integration of professional. The perfect product standards and methods, the evaluation system of business format, to promote the construction quality inspection. Strengthen the multi way business training, improve business ability of innovation of science and technology, promoting the integration of county level monitoring, forecasting and services, a comprehensive upgrade county-level fine forecast, disaster weather and meteorological disaster early warning service ability.