城镇化演进边际污染效应及其库兹涅茨曲线探析:基于安徽省的实证

Marginal Pollution Effect of Urbanization Evolution and Kuznets Curve Research: A Case Study of Anhui Province

以安徽省为例,选取工业废水、废气、固体废物等9项指标,采用主成分分析评价方法对污染综合指数进行评价。借鉴STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘回归方法,对城镇化边际污染效应进行测度,并通过引入城镇化水平二次项,对城镇化与污染综合指数间是否契合库兹涅茨曲线进行探索。结果表明:1安徽省污染指数由2000年的42.95升至2012年的62.27,年均提升3.14%;2城镇化演进对环境污染具有显著的正向效应,其边际弹性系数为0.072732;3城镇化水平与污染综合指数间不存在倒U型EKC曲线关系,而表现为单调递增同向演化规律。基于研究结果,从优化产业结构,依靠科技进步实现转型发展,强化环境管理等方面提出了对策,为管理层制定协调城镇化与生态环境的政策提供参考,并为省域尺度的同类研究提供借鉴。

Taking Anhui Province as a case study,nine indicators,such as industrial wastewater^waste gas and solid waste, are selected to evaluate the integrated pollution index using principal component analysis. Based on the STIRPAT Model, the marginal pollution effect of urbanization is measured by partial least squares regression method. Meanwhile, the quadratic term of urbanization level is introduced to explore whether the urbanization and integrated pollution index can fit for Kuznets curve. The results are shown as followings. First, there is an increasing tendency of the pollution index of Anhui Province from 42. 95 in 2000 to 62. 27 in 2012, with an annual average increase of 3. 14%. Second, urbanization evolution has signifi- cant positive effect on environmental pollution with a marginal elasticity coefficient of 0. 072732. Third, no inverted-U shaped EKU curve exists between urbanization level and integrated pollution index, but showing a synthetic evolution law with monotonic increasing. Based on research results, it should be to optimize industrial structure and rely on scientific ad- vance for transiting development. The targeted policies are proposed to strengthen environmental management, providing ref- erences for management level to formulate the policies of coordinating urbanization and eco-environment. It is also hoped play a sample role in studying the other provincial administrative regions.