低碳发展政策及其组合的复合效应——基于北京动态CGE模型的政策模拟和成本有效性评估

The Composite Effects of Policy Mix for LowCarbon Development——A Dynamic CGE Modeling and Cost Effective Analysis for Beijing Case

本文基于动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,就北京城镇化进程中的低碳发展政策组合进行反事实的情景模拟和分析。基本结论是:提高能源效率、加快清洁能源(电力)投资、实施碳税虽然都有利于节能减排,但其对经济增长和结构调整则分别具有不同影响,相应的政策组合具有协同效应或对冲效应。因此,推动低碳发展战略,必须根据可能的政策措施和手段的环境有效性、成本有效性、行政和政治上的可行性,综合运用多种低碳发展政策工具进行优化组合,发挥政策组合的协同效应,努力将低碳发展的外部性问题内部化,改善低碳发展战略和政策的实施绩效。

The transition to a low-carbon development has gained global momentum in recent decade. China in the industrialization and the urbanization process has to find an effective and inclusive strategy with policy mix for the low-carbon development. This paper aims to highlight the synergy and offsetting effects in terms of economic growth, structure change, energy consumption, and carbon emission of policy mix at industrial level. We take Beijing as a case to employ a regional dynamic CGE model to analyze counter-faeturally the cost effective policy mix for low-carbon development in urbanization. The policies in the designed scenarios include： （1） A flat increase in energy efficiency by industry; （2） An increase in investment in electricity industry; （3） A fiat carbon tax by industry; （4） A policy pair, i.e. a mix of carbon tax and investment subsidy for energy conservation and emission reduction to keep the governmental revenue neural. The conclusion is that the cost effective low- carbon development strategy should be one on the integrated application of practical policy mix.