电力系统停电风险评估指标及方法

Indexes and method of power system outage risk assessment

从电力安全事故(事件)的角度,根据《中国南方电网有限责任公司电力事故(事件)调查规程(试行)》和《南方电网运行安全风险量化评估技术规范》,提出一套停电风险评估指标,用于计算电网发生电力安全事故(事件)的风险值。基于该指标,结合OPA模型提出了一种电力系统停电风险评估方法。采用该方法对某500 k V网架系统进行了仿真,结果表明所辨识出的薄弱区域与实际系统运行经验相符,验证了指标和方法的正确性。

According to the ＂Electricity Accident（Event） Investigation Procedures of China Southern Power Grid（pilot）＂ and the ＂Guide on Operational Risk Evaluation of China Southern Power Grid＂,a set of power system outage risk assessment index is proposed for calculating the risk in terms of electric power security accident（event）,based on which and combined with the OPA model,a method of power system outage risk assessment is proposed. Simulation is carried out for a 500 kV power grid and results show that,the identified weak areas agree with its operational experiences,verifying the correctness of the proposed indexes and method.