2000年以来中国进出口贸易的主要影响因素分析

The analysis of the main influence factors on Chinese import and export trade since 2000

本文旨在对影响中国进出口贸易发展的主要因素进行定量及定性分析。影响因素主要包括季节性因素、入世、人民币汇率变动、金融危机及其他因素。再者,将上述影响因素与进出口贸易增长或波动的关系进行关联性分析,结果表明上述影响因素对中国进出口贸易流量、结构、条件及方式等有着不同程度的影响。最后,本文针对上述影响因素,提出了提升中国进出口贸易竞争力,防范贸易波动风险的政策建议。

This paper includes three main parts. Firstly, summing up the development process and characteristics of China＇s import and export trade since 2000 in five aspects, that is, the trade policy, the scale, the structure, the modes and the export areas. Secondly, analyzing the main factors that affecting the development of China＇s import and export trade. The main factors include the seasonal factors, the accession to the WTO, RMB exchange rate, financial crisis and other factors. Furthermore, making association analysis of the influence factors and the growth or fluctuations of import and export trade. The results show that the influence factors affect the flow, structure, condition and methods of China＇s import and export trade in different degree. Finally, considering the above influence factors, this paper puts forward some suggestions to enhance China＇s import and export trade competitiveness, countermeasures to prevent the trade fluctuations.