Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia

基于 19832011 CMAP 数据，在东亚的降水异例和它的附近的海区域(此后叫的东亚为短) 在 1999 前表明 ++ 模式并且 + 模式以后；这个十的变化在相应 EOF3 部件主要被包含。然而， NCC_CGCM 预报结果是相当不同的，它在 1999 前揭示 ++ 模式并且 ++ 模式以后。同时，基于这些关键 SST 区域改进 NCC_CGCMs 预报精确性的概率被讨论，并且动态统计的联合预报计划为增加在东亚在夏天降水包含的十的变化的信息被构造。独立样品预报结果显示这个预报计划罐头有效地修改十的变化信息在东亚在夏天降水包含了的 NCC_CGCMs (特别在 30 敢琠敨攠癮 的区域吗？？

Based on the 1983~2011 CMAP data,the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions（hereafter called East Asia for short） demonstrates the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component.However,the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different,which reveal the ＂＋-＋-＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＋＂ pattern afterwards.Meanwhile,the probability of improving NCC_CGCM＇s forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed,and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia.The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM＇s decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia（especially in the area of 30°N–55°N）.The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area,and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas,which are better than NCC_CGCM＇s system error correction results（ACC is -0.01 and ACR is 49%）.Besides,the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards.