退牧还草博弈分析

Research on Game of Returning Livestock Pastures to Natural Grasslands

在退牧还草实践中,中央政府、地方政府与牧民之间的利益密切相关,策略相互依存,通常由政府确定项目任务和制定补助标准,牧民负责具体实施。通过构建中央、地方政府和牧民间退牧还草的博弈,从静态和动态两个方面对三个利益方的博弈决策行为进行研究,结果表明:政府如能充分考虑不同地区差异、合理安排任务量、适当提高补助比例、完善项目后续保障措施,就能充分调动牧民完成项目的积极性,保证项目的顺利实施,实现良好的生态、经济和社会效益。

The three benefit agents of central government,local government and herdsmen interact each other,and theirs strategies interdepend during implementing the project of returning livestock pastures to natural grasslands.Usually government determines task of the project and make standard of subsidy,then herdsmen take specific measures to finish the project.Three games were established to study behaviors of each benefit agent in returning livestock pastures to natural grasslands by using static and dynamic game analysis method.The results showed that if government could fully consider the difference between different regions,arrange tasks reasonably,raise the subsidy ratio properly and improve security measures of follow-up project during making policy,the enthusiasm of herdsmen finishing project would be aroused and the project would be implemented favorably.Lastly favorable ecology,economy and social benefit could be obtained.