基于ARIMA模型的山东省市域居民收入预测分析

Prediction and Analysis Based on ARIMA Model in Shandong Province Residents Income

山东省居民收入差距几年来不断扩大,根据1996-2013年山东统计年鉴中城镇居民可支配收入和农村居民人均纯收入数据,采用ARIMA和单指数平滑法的模型预测显示,2013-2016年内城镇居民和农村居民收入仍将继续增长,城镇居民达到28718.54、31681.89、34645.24和37608.59元,农村居民达到10550.67、11654.94、12759.21、13863.48元。同时,城乡居民收入差距不断拉大。结合山东省实际,提出增加农民收入、抓住新型城镇化的发展机遇,促进城乡协调发展、重点加强职业教育和成人教育、加快西部经济发展速度的措施。

Income gap of Shandong Province have been enlarged continuously over the past several years. According to the statistical yearbook of Shandongurban residents 1996-2013 years in disposable income and per capita net income of rural residents data, using ARIMA and single exponential smoothing model predictive, it display 2013-2016 years, income of urban residents and rural residents will continue to grow andurbanresidents will reach 28718.54, 31681.89, 34645.24 and 37608.59 yuan, rural residents will reach 10550. 67, 11654.94, 12759. 21, 13863.48 yuan. At the same time, the income gap between urban and rural residents is widening. Combined with the actual situation of Shandong Province, it put forward the development opportunities to increase the income of the farmers, to seize the new urbanization, promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, focusing on strengthening the occupation education and adult education, to speed up western economic development measures.