基于CA-Markov模型的温江区土地利用格局变化预测

The Prediction and Analysis of the Landuse Change Pattern in Wenjiang District Based on CA- Markov Model

土地利用/覆被变化（Land use and Land cover Change,LUCC）对于社会、经济和环境的变化有着重要影响。及时把握土地利用及其变化状况,预测其变化趋势对于环境保护和人类社会发展有着重要的意义。利用CA-Markov模型预测了2020年温江区土地利用格局变化,结果表明：2008年~2013年,成都市温江区耕地、园地转出面积占所有转出面积的43.96%。2013年~2020年,则占所有转出面积的64.70%。2008年、2013年流失的耕地面积主要是转化成了城市建设用地,而2013年、2020年新增耕地面积也主要由城市和农村建设用地转换而来,不同的是2013年耕地面积来源中城市建设用地面积较大,而2020年耕地来源构成中,有相当部分来自农村建设用地。在耕地面积的占补平衡过程中,传统耕地流失,而低质量用地类型转化为耕地,耕地质量问题应受到关注。总体来说,2008年~2020年期间,温江区处于城市建设高速发展时期,耕地、园地等自然半自然生态系统面积减少,城市建设、交通等人工构筑物面积增加。2013年~2020年,温江区城市建设用地预计将有358.43hm2转变为裸地,说明旧城改造仍在不断进行。林地在提高环境质量,改善生态服务功能过程中起着重要作用。温江区林地面积在2008年~2013年、2013年~2020年两个时期不断增加,且有相当部分来自裸地和城市建设用地,说明温江城市化过程中生态环境保护和城市绿地景观建设得到了重视。在城市化过程中做好中长期城市发展规划,合理布局自然、人工景观,对构建到＂城在园中＂和＂园在城中＂的山水田园城市格局,具有重要意义。

Land use and Land cover Change （LUCC） has important influence to the change of society, economic and environment. Thus, grasp the LUCC condition and its changes in time and predict its changing trend has important significance to the environment protection and human society development. This paper predicted the land use pattern changes in Wenjiang district by CA-Markov model, the results showed： transferred cultivated land and garden plot accounted for 43.96% of overall the transfer land during 2008 to 2013, whereas the value was 64. 70% during 2013 to 2020. The decreased cultivated land was transfer to town construction in 2008 and 2013. The newly-increased cultivated land areas were mainly from the city and rural construction land in 2013 and 2020, but in 2013, it mainly came from town construction land, whereas in 2020, it was mainly come from rural construction land. Results suggested that even there exsited dynamic balances during the requisition and compensation of cultivated land, the traditional cultivated land loss, and low-quality land use type had transfered into cultivated land, and the quality of cultivated land should be concerned in the future. Overall, Wenjiang district was in period of rapid urbanization during 2008 to 2020, cultivated land, and garden land and other natural semi natural ecosystem area had reduced, artificial ecosystem such as urban construction, traffic area had increased. Above all, make Medium and long-term urbandevelopment planning, reasonable distribution natural and artificial landscape has played an important role in structuring landscape gar- den city pattern, just like ＂city in the garden＂ and ＂garden in the city ＂.