打车软件背景下空驶出租车出行分布预测模型

A Forecasting Model of Trip Distribution for Vacant Taxis with Taxi-hailing Apps

基于出租车的运行特征,引入了空驶出租车出行的概念,对打车软件背景下出租车出行分布进行研究,以提高预测的准确性.应用Logit概率选择模型对空驶出租车出行的选择情况进行分析,建立了空驶出租车和总体出租车的交通出行分布预测模型.算例表明,文中提出的分布预测方法具有可行性,并证明了在使用打车软件下可降低空驶出租车的出行次数。

In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting trip distribution for vacant taxis with taxihailing apps,a new concept trip of vacant taxis was presented based on the operation pattern of taxis.And then,a trip distribution model for vacant taxis and total taxis was established with logit model.The computation result of the simple numerical example showed that the method was convergent and feasible.The taxi-hailing apps were helpful to reduce the trips of vacant taxi,which can offer some beneficial guidance and theoretic basis to the planning and management of urban taxi operation.