基于Copula函数的航班延误相关性分析

Correlation Analysis of Flight Delay Based on Copula Function

不同因素引起的航班延误产生的波及影响是不同的.运用Copula理论研究了由空中管制原因导致的初始延误引发的连续航班延误之间的相关性,并进一步分析了初始延误对次航班的波及效应.研究发现两航班延误时间都较长的组合数对出现的频率较高;初始延误对次航班的波及影响跟初始延误时间长短有关.随着初始延误时间的增长,对次航班波及影响表现为吸收的可能性增加,延误传递和增强的可能性下降.

Different flight delays caused by different factors will produce different results and propagations.Copula theory is introduced to study correlation between the sequence flight delays which caused by the initial delay for air traffic control and further analysis of propagation effects on following flight caused by initial delay flight is presented.It is found that the appearance frequency of assorted pairs is higher,and the assorted pairs belong to two flights delay with longer time;The initial delay propagation effects on the following flight is related to the time of initial delay.Results demonstrate that with the increase of initial delay time,the possibility of absorption of following flight in propagation effects is increased and the possibility of propagation and enhancement of delay is reduced.