城中村棚户改造工程不定开销波动预测

Uncertain Cost Prediction of Village Shanty Towns Reconstruction Project

城中村棚户区改造工程中,对改造工程中的不定开销波动方位进行准确预测,可以减少经济开支,提高建设效率。提出一种基于程控约束的城中村棚户改造工程不定开销波动预测算法。首先进行城中村棚户区改造工程中不定开销波动模型构建和参量设计,构建能拟合诸多不定因素影响因子的非线性动力系统,实现对城中村棚户区改造工程预算的不定开销控制模型构建。基于Lyapunov指数预测算法,把经济开销数据序列看作是一组非线性时间序列,进行波动预测,纳入具有程控约束性的影响因子群组,实现波动预测算法改进,降低预测标准方差。实验结果表明,该算法能有效预测和控制在改造工程中出现的不定开销的波动,波动幅度降低为0,从而节约工程预算,降低城建成本。

Village in city shantytowns renovation project, accurate prediction of project of indefinite cost fluctuation range,can reduce the cost, improve the efficiency of the construction. An uncertain cost prediction of village shantytown reconstruction project is proposed based on program-controlled constraint. Overhead fluctuation model construction and parameter design of indefinite village shantytown reconstruction project, construction of many indefinite factors fitting nonlinear dynamic system factor, the indefinite cost control model of village in city shantytowns renovation project budget. Prediction algorithm based on Lyapunov index, the economic cost of data sequence as a set of nonlinear time series prediction, the improvement of volatility prediction algorithm is realized, it can reduce the prediction variance. The experimental results show that, the algorithm can effectively predict and control indefinite cost fluctuation, it is reduced to 0, thus saving the project budget, reduce the construction cost.