多适应性电网规划风险评估框架设计及应用展望

Risk Assessment Framework Design on Flexibility Power Grid Planning and Its Application Prospect

随着电网的快速发展,电网结构愈加复杂,伴随电网中不确定因素逐渐增加,电网运行面临的风险水平也不断增加。将风险评估引入电网规划,可在电网规划过程中考虑国民经济发展、资源优化配置、电网运行环境等多个影响电网发展的内外部不确定因素,从而使电网规划方案更加经济合理,适应性更强。研究了新形势下电网规划面临的大规模新能源集中开发、电网格局变化、现代配电网建设以及其他新技术带来的挑战,总结分析了国内外电网规划风险评估技术的研究进展及开展风险评估工作的意义,在此基础上提出由评价对象、评价层级和评价约束因素构成的多适应性电网规划风险评估框架,以及进行风险评估的整体思路和评估流程,并对未来风险评估技术在我国电网规划领域的应用前景进行了展望。

With the development of pow er grid,its structure is becoming more complicated. The potential operation risk level of pow er grid is grow ing w ith the increase of uncertain factors in pow er grid. This paper applied risk evaluation in pow er grid planning,and considered the internal and external uncertainty factors impacting the development of pow er grid,such as national economic development,the optimal allocation of resources,and the running environment of pow er grid,w hich could make pow er grid planning more economic,reasonable and stronger adaptability. The challenges including largescale renew able energy integration,the change of pow er grid structure,the development of modern distribution netw ork,etc.,w ere analyzed at first. The research progress and w ork of risk evaluation applied in pow er grid planning at home and abroad w ere then studied. On this basis,the risk evaluation framew ork for flexibility pow er grid planning w as proposed,w hich consisted of evaluation objects,evaluation hierarchy and constraint factors; the overall outline and flow chart of risk evaluation w ere presented; the future application prospect of risk evaluation technology in the field of pow er grid planning in China w as discussed at last.