河南省用水结构演变与驱动因子灰色关联研究

Analysis of Water Utilization Structure Evolvement and Its Driving Forces Based on Grey Relation Degree in Henan Province

基于1999—2012年《河南省水资源公报》及《河南统计年鉴》中各种类型用水和经济社会指标数据,对河南省用水结构及效益演变进行了分析。在此基础上,采用信息熵和灰色关联方法对河南省用水结构演变和驱动因子进行分析。结果表明:河南省用水结构信息熵和均衡度皆在波动中趋于上升,说明其用水结构趋于均衡方向发展;用水结构演变驱动因子的灰色关联分析反映了河南省作为农业大省和人口大省,其农业发展方式、农业节水灌溉发展、产业结构调整、城镇化等社会经济发展对用水结构演变影响较大。

The water utilization structure evolvement and its economic performance was analyzed based on some economic and social indicator data in 1999-2012 from Henan Water Resources Bulletin and Henan Statistical Yearbook,and the driving forces and water resource utiliza-tion structure were analyzed using information entropy and gray correlation method. The results show that the water utilization structure infor-mation entropy and equilibrium degree of fluctuation tend to rise in Henan Province,which describes the structure of water utilization tends to be in balanced direction. The gray correlations of water utilization structure evolution and its driving forces show that Henan’s agricultural development,agricultural water-saving irrigation development,industrial restructuring,urbanization and other social and economic develop-ment have great impacts on water utilization structure evolvement.