环境空气质量动态目标管理方法探讨

Methods on Management of Dynamic Target for Ambient Air Quality

为了改进和弥补目前年度目标管理中存在的前瞻性和可达性不足,构建了基于小尺度时段(月度)的环境空气质量逐月动态目标管理方法。该方法以已确定的区域年度目标为基础,系统分析了以往逐年逐月的环境空气质量自动监测数据,结合区域气象因素的变化,确定与目标年气象条件相似的年度。按照相似年度环境空气质量污染物浓度全年逐月月均值与基础年全年逐月月均值的削减关系,将目标年年度目标值分解到目标年全年各月份,制定区域目标年全年逐月动态目标控制值—区域年度逐月目标。继而以此为基础,以相似年的逐月监测数据为依据,将目标年区域年度逐月目标再分解到区域内各城市的全年各月份,制定各城市目标年全年逐月动态目标控制值—城市年度逐月目标,构成区域逐月动态目标管理体系,以增强目标管理的前瞻性和可达性,为实现环境空气质量精细化管理奠定基础,为各级政府科学推动国务院《大气污染防治行动计划》提供方法支持和管理服务。

In order to improve and make up for the forward-looking and accessibility of an annual target management, a method on dynamic target management for ambient air quality was proposed based on a period of study at a small time scale （monthly）. Through the systematic analysis of the past yearly and monthly ambient air quality data and the combination with the change of the regional meteorological factors, the future years with similar meteorological conditions to the target year were identified. Based on the established regional annual target of the target year and the monthly pollutant concentration change pattern between the base year and the similar year, the regional annual target was decomposed to each month of the target year as the monthly dynamic control target of the region. Then, according to the monthly pollutant concentration change pattern among each city and the region, the monthly dynamic control target of the region was decomposed to the each month in the target year of each city as the monthly dynamic control target of cities in the region. A regional monthly dynamic target management system was established to strengthen the forward-looking and accessibility of target management, which would lay a foundation for realizing the fine management of the regional ambient air quality, and provide technical support and services for governments at all levels with scientifically advancing the action plan for the prevention and control of air pollution of the state council.