生态风险评价方法学研究进展与评价模型选择

Progress of Ecological Risk Assessment Methodology and Choice of Assessment Models

对国内外生态风险评价(ERA)内容、基本方法、研究进展及评价模型进行了研究,重点对生态风险评价过程中危害识别、暴露评估、暴露-效应评估及风险表征4个不同阶段应用到的方法学及模型选择两方面进行了介绍,并从评价要求、数据可获得性及评价的操作难易程度3个方面论述了模型选择的基本原则,并基于此对3种常用模型-商值法(HQ),物种敏感度分布法(SSDs)和概率生态风险评估模型(PERA)进行了比较,表明概率生态风险评估模型评价结果以概率的形式给出,故最接近实际情况,但其对数据及专业知识要求较高。此外研究认为,生态风险评价过程应基于充分的实际调研,并结合现有经济技术水平,选择适合的评价方法,在借鉴国外评价模型时,务必要根据实际情况对模型进行修正与验证,并充分考虑评价过程中不确定性的影响。

The content, methodologies, progress and models of Ecological Risk Assessment（ERA） were examined in this study. The attention was focused on the methods and models adopted in the procedures of hazard identification, exposure assessment, effect assessment and risk characterization in the ERA process. The choice of models was based on requirement, available data and difficulties in practical use, and then three models were subsequently compared. By the comparison among models of Hazard Quotient（HQ）, Species Sensitive Distributions （SSDs） and Probabilities Ecological Risk Assessment（PERA）, the conclusion showed that the PERA method presented the assessment result in a probability value instead of an absolute value. So the PERA model made the assessment more realistic, but it had higher requirements on data and expertise. The actual ERA cases should be based on sufficient investigation and take the economic technologies into consideration. When foreign models are adopted, amendment and verification are necessary according to the real situation. Besides, the effect of uncertainties needs to be taken into consideration.