公交站和出口组合影响的交通流生存分析

Survival Analysis of Traffic Flow Based on the Combination Effect of Bus Stop and Exit

为准确评价快速路公交站设置在出入口附近对主路车流行驶时间的影响,在分析快速路公交停靠站和出入口交通特性的基础上,以公交停靠站设置在出口上游为例,利用半参数比例风险模型研究主路车辆行驶时间与危险因子之间的关系,然后分析生存率对协变量的敏感性.结果表明:有4个协变量与主路车辆行驶时间显著相关,模型能准确估算车辆行驶时间分布,还可用于短时预测单个因子变化对车辆行驶时间分布的影响.

An accurate evaluation of the effect of a bus stop near an access for an expressway on car travel time on the main road is the basis for taking effective traffic management and organization measures. Based on the traffic characteristics analysis of bus stops and accesses, taking a bus stop located at the upstream of an exit as an example, a semi parametric proportional hazards model （ Cox model） was used to analyze the association between car travel time and risk factors. Survival probability of sensitivity to individual covariates was illustrated. Results show that four variables are significantly related to the car travel time. The model can be used to precisely estimate the distribution of car travel time and predict temporal shifts in car travel time due to the change of some factor.