区域经济与生态环境系统动态耦合及响应过程研究

Dynamic Coupling and Response Analysis Between Regional Economic and Ecological Environment Systems

在建立区域经济与生态环境系统协调发展的动态耦合模型基础上,分析区域经济与生态环境系统动态耦合关系.为更深入探讨经济与生态环境系统协调发展影响机理与系统间响应过程,通过分解生态环境系统,进行格兰杰因果与脉冲响应分析,研究两系统的动态响应过程;对山东省1996—2012年时间序列数据进行实证研究.结果表明:山东省经济与生态环境系统处于协调发展阶段,但生态环境开始制约经济的发展,山东省环境治理被动地关联于经济增长,环境排放和治理对经济产生了负效应.环境治理是需要长期坚持的过程,短时期内的大量投入无法立刻反馈经济系统.

With the construction of dynamic coupling model on coordinated development of regional economy and ecological environment system, the dynamic coupling relations of regional economy and ecological environment system were analyzed. In order to analyze the influence mechanism and intersystem response process of coordinated development of regional economy and ecological environment system, the granger causality analysis and impulse response analysis were conducted to study the dynamic response process of these two systems. Times series data from 1996 to 2012 in Shandong Province were used to make an empirical research. The results showed that the economy and ecological environment system of Shandong was in the stage of coordinate development, but the ecological environment began to restrict the development of economy. The environmental governance is the process of needing for a long time, because a short period of spending can＇ t feedback economic system at once.