基于VEC模型的机场规模与区域经济发展的关联度分析

Correlation Analysis Between the Airport Scale and Regional Economy Based on VEC Model

机场规模与其区域经济的关联度分析,是合理规划机场发展、明确机场定位的基础.通过对机场规模指标与区域经济指标的统计分析,采用VEC(Vector Error Correction Model)模型,经格兰杰因果关系检验模型分析机场规模与区域经济的相互关系,并选取北京首都机场与南京禄口机场相关数据进行对比实证分析.结果表明:机场规模指标与区域经济指标之间存在协整关系,同时,不同规模机场与区域经济之间的关联度不同.随着机场规模的扩大,机场对区域经济增长的溢出效应变大.

The correlation analysis between airport scale and regional economy is the basis of reasonable development planning and explicit positioning of the airport. Through statistical analysis of the airport scale index and the regional economic index, the correlation between the airport scale and the regional economy was analyzed by using the VEC （Vector Error Correction） model and the Granger causality test model. The related data of Beijing capital airport and Nanjing Lukou airport were chosen for relative analysis. The results show that there is co- integration relationship between the airport scale index and regional economic index. Meanwhile, the degree of association is changed with different airport scale and regional economic. With the expansion of the airport scale, the spillover effect of airport on region economy growth becomes large.