基于VAR模型的福建省煤炭消费与碳排放强度交互效应分析

Analysis of Interaction Effect Imposed on Coal Consumptionand Carbon Emission Intensity of Fujian Province based on VAR Model

文章构建了1990-2013年福建省煤炭消费比重与碳排放强度的VAR模型,并利用脉冲响应函数分析了两者之间的动态交互冲击关系。结果表明:碳排放强度冲击对煤炭消费比重的影响不具有记忆性,而煤炭消费比重的波动冲击会造成碳排放强度在长时期内的同方向变动,且煤炭消费比重的波动主要来源于自身的冲击影响,因此可以通过降低当前的煤耗比重来降低福建省的碳排放强度以及未来时期的煤炭消耗量。有鉴于此,文章从技术改进、产业结构转型和能源结构优化三个角度,提出减少单位煤炭碳排放、降低对煤炭需求、提高清洁能源比重等降低福建省碳排放强度的相关对策建议。

The paper constructs a VAR model of the proportion of coal consumption and carbonemission intensity of Fujian Province between 1990-2013 years, and then analyzing their dynamicinteractive impact effect by using the impulse response function. The results show that the shock fromcarbon emissions intensity does not affect coal consumption proportion long, while the volatile shockof coal consumption weight will cause changes in the same direction of carbon emission intensity overa long period of time, and the shock mainly comes from its own impact. So we can reduce both thecarbon emission intensity and coal consumption of Fujian province by reducing the proportion of coalconsumption. In view of this, this article proposes some related countermeasures and suggestions fromthree aspects, involving the technical improvement, industrial restructuring, and the optimization ofenergy structure to reduce the carbon emission intensity of Fujian Province.