后危机时代养老金制度的收益与风险评估

Efficiency and Risk Evaluation of Pension System in the Post-Crisis Era

20世纪70年代以来,在经济滞涨与人口老龄化的背景下,以智利、英国、澳大利亚、瑞典为代表的各国纷纷对传统养老保险制度进行了改革。经济危机过后的时代,恰是检验改革国家养老金制度运行效果的时间窗口。从收益性角度来看,基金积累制的投资收益率一般要高于现收现付制的内含回报率,但若考虑个人账户基金管理的运营成本和转换费用,则这种优势将大打折扣。从风险的角度看,基金积累制的市场波动风险(用变异系数与VaR衡量)明显高于现收现付制。名义账户制在收益性与抵御风险的能力方面均不如现收现付制。基于养老金在缓解贫困、提供稳定而安全的收入预期方面的特质,建立以待遇确定型现收现付制为主体、多层次为补充的养老金体系是较为理性的选择。

Under the background of economic stagnation and population ageing in 1970s,many countries, represented by Chile,UK,Australia and Sweden,have reformed their traditional Pay - As - You - Go pension system. The post - crisis era is the right window time to evaluate the effect of those reformed pension system in various countries. This paper makes an evaluation of the real effect of the current pension system of the four countries. From the perspective of profit,the real rate of return of funding is often higher than the internal rate of return of PAYG. But if we take the total operating cost & transforming fees into consideration,the advantage of the Financial Defined Contribution( FDC)may not be that outstanding. The market risk of funding system is much higher than the PAYG as we use the coefficient of variation and VAR model to test. The NDC system in Sweden doesn’t perform as well as the old PAYG in terms of profit and risk aversion. Based on the essence of pension, which aims at poverty alleviation and providing a secure and stable income expectations for the elderly,this paper has proposed that we establish a pension system with PAYG as the main body,and other kinds of pension schemes as supplements to the basic part. That can be a rational choice for construction of pension system in the post - crisis era.