响应面法在船撞桥可靠度分析中的应用

Application of Response Surface Method in Reliability Analysis of Ship Collision

船撞桥梁的可靠度,其结构响应变量与基本变量之间的函数关系复杂,传统的求解方法难以奏效,需要借助于有限元等数值计算方法来获得。利用APDL语言采用两种方法求解船撞桥的可靠度,对比蒙特卡洛法(MCS)的7种工况下和响应面法(ODRSM-MCS)的桥墩的失效概率,在10 000次MCS拉丁抽样与ODRSM-MCS法抽样桥墩的失效概率分别是6.02×10-3和2.06×10-3。响应面法达到与MCS法同等精度的情况下,MCS与ODRSM-MCS所用的时间分别是280 min和5 min,从而证明响应面法的有效性和高效性。

The structure response variables and basic variables for reliability against ship collision are very complex.The traditional methods of solving the problem is difficult.APDL language of two methods are used to solve the reliability at ship collision against the bridge.With seven MCS method conditions and ODRSM-MCS, the probability of failure of bridge pier of 10 000 MCS Latin sampling and ODRSM-MCS Box-Behnken sample is 6.02 ×10 -3 and 2.06 ×10-3 respectively.While achieving the same accuracy, 280 minutes is used for calcula-tion with MCS and 5 minutes with the ODRSM-MCS.So the ODRSM-MCS method is much more efficient.