基于ELES模型的城镇职工基本养老保险替代率评估——以上海市为例

An Evaluation for Urban Pension Insurance Replacement Rate Based on Extended Linear Expenditure System Model:taking Shanghai as an example

养老保险制度设计的目标,应以维持老年人的基本生活需求为底线。本文以上海为例,基于ELES模型分析2003-2012年城镇居民消费结构变化及其对养老金替代率的影响。研究发现,收入水平、商品价格是影响居民消费的重要因素。伴随收入水平提高,"非必需品"具有向"必需品"转化的趋向。基本消费支出下限呈上升趋势,对应消费支出口径的养老金替代率警戒水平较为稳定。养老金替代率近期不会触及警戒线,但距离政策目标替代率仍有一定差距。

The goal of pension insurance system should take the basic needs of life as bottom lines. Taking Shanghai as an example,this paper analyses the change of consumption structure of urban residents and its effect on pension insurance replacement rate. It is found out that income level and commodity price are the most basic factors for consumption. Some non - essentials are turning to necessities with income level increase. Matching with survivable consumption,basic consumption expenditure is on the rise. The alarming level for pension insurance replacement rate remained stable. In the near future,the actual value for pension insurance replacement rate won’ t reach the alarming rate,but there is obvious gap between its actual value and goal value.