北欧国家社会保障制度改革的经济效应研究

Study on the Economic Effects from the Social Security System Reform in Nordic Countries

由于20世纪80年代的经济危机,北欧五国出现了经济增长下降、失业率上升等问题,其高福利制度面临严峻的挑战。90年代北欧国家开始进行福利制度改革,改革效果令人瞩目,即使在欧盟主权债务危机严重的时期,北欧五国依然保持了稳定的增长和较高的就业率。本文从劳动就业、储蓄与消费、宏观经济增长三大方面,对1990-2013年北欧国家社保制度改革的经济效应进行了分析,主要得出以下结论:首先,20世纪90年代的改革,使失业率下降并维持在一个相对较低的水平,并且,瑞典与丹麦的劳动力年均工作时间一度呈现出上升趋势;其次,除丹麦外,北欧国家社保支出水平与国民储蓄率、居民最终消费支出负相关,社保制度改革使国民储蓄率与居民最终消费支出都有所增加;最后,北欧国家实际GDP增长率与社保支出水平增长率负相关,社保制度改革成功控制了社保支出水平上升趋势,并实现了经济的稳定增长。这些结论充分体现出北欧社保制度的改革减少了公共赤字水平、避免了税收负担的加重、稳定了经济发展。

Nordic countries have built welfare system since 1960s. The welfare system pushed the development of economy. However,Because of the economic crisis in the 1980s,the economic growth of Nordic countries slowed down,and the unemployment rate rose. At the same time,the welfare system faced serious challenges. Nordic countries started to reform the welfare system. The reform effects was remarkable. During the period of EU serious debt crisis,the five Nordic countries maintained a steady economic growth and a high employment rate. In this paper,the economic effects of the Nordic countries social security system reform during 1990 -2013 is analyzed from three aspects which is employment,savings and consumption,and macroeconomic growth. The main conclusions are following. First of all,the 1990s reform decreased the unemployment rate and maintained at a relatively low level. Sweden and Denmarkˊs Labor annual average working hours once as showing a rising trend. Secondly ,the Nordic countries social security expenditure have a negative correlation with national savings rate and household final consumption expenditure. The social security system reform increased national savings rate and household final consumption expenditure. Finally,the real GDP growth rate is negatively related to the growth rate of social security expenditure. The reform succeeded to control the rising social security expenditure,and achieved a stable economic growth. In a word,the Nordic social security system reform has reduced the public deficit,and avoided the tax burden of aggravating and stabled economic development.