中国铁路债务规模持续扩大的原因分析

Empirical Analysis on Reasons for the Expanding Debt Scale of China's Railway

截止2013年底,中国铁路债务规模达到3万亿,负债比例高达65%。现有的铁路经营无法有效减少负债,而铁路投资仍然在加速,中国铁路债务规模有进一步扩大的趋势。通过格兰杰因果检验与回归分析2000年以后中国铁路债务规模扩大的原因,可以发现中国铁路债务规模与铁路里长成正比,尤其是与高铁里程呈完全正相关。但深层次的原因是我国投资驱动的经济增长模式与不合理的经济结构造成的。要缩小中国铁路的债务规模,必须改变原有经济增长方式与铁路的投融资结构。

By the end of 2013, China’s railway debt has reached 3 trillion with debt ratio as high as 65%. Since the existing railway management can’t effectively reduce debts and railway investment is still accelerating, China’ s railway debt has a tendency to expand. Through regression analysis and Granger causality test of the reasons for China railway debt scale after 2000, this paper finds that China’s railway debt is proportional to the railway mileage, especially completely positive correlated with high-speed railway mileage. The deep reason is China ’s investment-driven growth model and unreasonable economic structure. To reduce debt scale of China’s railway, it is necessary to change the existing economic growth way and the railway investment and financing structure.